PER Projections (ugh)

towelboy Posts : 6 Join date : 2008-01-12

Projections people! These are only projections so don't get all uptight.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/rankings?pos=null&start=0&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fhollinger%2frankings%3fpos%3dnull%26start%3d0

How he projects the PERS for the upcoming season....

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=3055049

wannabe Posts : 3 Join date : 2008-01-12

At least he didn't project Lebron having the 2nd best PER of all time this year like last year

towelboy Posts : 4 Join date : 2008-01-12

hes trying too hard with this stuff. Projected PER, thats pretty funny. Ah well, you got the time we got the beer

wannabe Posts : 3 Join date : 2008-01-12

there are way too many variables, more than this, I would have had more repsect for it if he used more subjective ideas in addition.
All you can do is take a group and project an average for a group. As individual predictions, bah. Not much value in this. We already know established players will probably have similar PERS. Projecting for younger individual prospects, there is no formula that tells you anything worthwhile

wannabe Posts : 3 Join date : 2008-01-12

Quote :: From that point, I see what their most similar players did a year later, and project those changes onto the stats of the player being studied. So, for example, the reason that Yao Ming's PER is projected to rise sharply this year is because the most similar players also saw their PERs increase sharply at the same age

all the other 7'6 young guys with mid range jump shots in the arsenal?

wannabe Posts : 3 Join date : 2008-01-12

The PER stat is worthless. Hollinger is a moron. That is all.

towelboy Posts : 5 Join date : 2008-01-12

towelboy Posts : 6 Join date : 2008-01-12

People who defend PER are the ones who consider it for what it is, a good stat. Not some ultimate player ranking system or anything like that Hollinger even says that it's just about stats. Yeah some people like Duncan and Bowen are underrated by PER, but it is hard to find stats that don't underrate those two. Take it for what it is it's not some end-all player rankings. What it is, however, is a stat that puts together all the other stats while adjusting for pace and usage, which is why I prefer it over most stats.

towelboy Posts : 4 Join date : 2008-01-12

PER is a good stat for what it intends to be -- a summary of a player's box score stats. Calling Hollinger names is as pointless as saying the stat is useless. Hollinger happens to be a very smart guy, and the stat is a useful summary stat.

wannabe Posts : 3 Join date : 2008-01-12

tomsk13 wrote:: The PER stat is worthless. Hollinger is a moron. That is all.

agree

towelboy Posts : 4 Join date : 2008-01-12

Let's see... Deron Williams at #65. TJ Ford at #50

Do you think any GM in the league given the choice would pass on Williams for Ford?

PER is worthless.

towelboy Posts : 4 Join date : 2008-01-12

PER is as retarded as the man who invented it. Hollinger is a tool...anyone who believes a dang word he says is a tool. That is all...carry on.

JV Posts : 88 Join date : 2008-01-12

PER is a useful guide... nothing more or less. It isn't the end all and be all to measure a player. It certainly isn't worthless but it isn't infallible.